Overthrowing foreign governments may seem like a powerful tool for advancing US interests. And it is, but it also risks eroding other tools that are far more effective at promoting freedom and improving human rights around the world. In fact, the overuse of regime change undermines America’s ability to pursue other policy goals, including economic growth and national security.
The United States has a long history of forcibly overthrowing foreign regimes, from the CIA-backed overthrow of Iran’s Mohammad Mosaddegh to its unsuccessful Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba. These covert and overt operations have transformed the concept of Westphalian sovereignty into a dynamic that allows superpowers to step in and take over when they see fit.
Yet despite a long record of failure, many policymakers continue to favor regime change. This reflects cognitive biases that lead them to focus on the desirability of a goal and neglect to consider the full resources required to achieve it.
Moreover, a failure to recognize the complexity of a forcible regime change operation leads policymakers to make dangerous assumptions. For example, some believe that once an illiberal government is removed from power, democracy will take root naturally because it is the “right” thing to do. This belief ignores the complexities of the relationship between an illiberal regime and its domestic population, which varies widely across countries. As a result, democratic transitions are often far more complicated and difficult than imagined. Moreover, they are rarely cost-effective and often end up having negative consequences for American national security.